Petrol could rise by up to R4.58 a litre in November, the Automobile Association (AA) said, citing early, unofficial data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF).
In an open letter to the finance ministry on 8 October, the AA put the possible increase at R4.58 a litre for 95 petrol and R4.29 for 93. It gave R2.56 to R2.91 a litre for wholesale diesel and R5 a litre for illuminating paraffin.
The figures are early and unofficial. The AA said its November figures are projections that are recalculated daily, and its letter came out with most of the month still to run. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) sets the official adjustment.
October’s prices were a record, the AA said. At R30.25, a litre of 95 in Gauteng is the highest in the Fuels Industry Association’s price tables, which go back to 2012, and so is the R31.95 wholesale price of 0.05% diesel.
What changed in October
The DMPR raised 95 petrol by 333c a litre and 93 by 312c from 7 October. Wholesale diesel rose by 284.38c for the 0.05% sulphur grade and by 324.38c for the 0.005% grade, and illuminating paraffin by 358c. The maximum retail price of LPGas rose by 42c a kilogram, or 48c in the Western Cape.
Source: Fuels Industry Association of South Africa. Petrol is the retail price, diesel the wholesale list price. Chart: Rand Desk
A litre of 95 in Gauteng now costs R30.25, the Fuels Industry Association’s price table shows. That is R9.50 more than after the January adjustment on 7 January, when it cost R20.75. Gauteng wholesale diesel at the 0.05% grade stands at R31.95, up from R18.42 in January. For how fuel feeds into the cost of running a mine, see our report on mining input cost inflation.
Higher international product prices added 329.07c a litre to the basic fuel price of petrol, the DMPR said. Brent crude averaged US$101 a barrel over the review period, up from US$87.89. The DMPR tied the rise to continuing tension between the US and Iran, doubts about supply through the Strait of Hormuz, dearer shipping and shrinking stockpiles. It said international prices for petrol, diesel and paraffin climbed because global product inventories fell. The rand offered almost no relief, averaging R16.212 to the dollar against R16.213 in the previous period.
The slate levy rose by 4.38c to 87.66c a litre after the combined petrol and diesel slate ran up a negative balance of R10.45 billion by the end of August, the statement said.
The November outlook
Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop and early CEF data were the sources for the AA’s November numbers, according to the letter. The letter put oil at more than US$100 a barrel, up from US$65 “before the Iran war”. Our explainer on how the fuel price is set shows how the CEF’s daily figures become the monthly change.
Calls for relief
The AA asked National Treasury for a second R3-a-litre cut in fuel taxes before the November adjustment, funded by cutting spending it called wasteful instead of borrowing. “Recover it from waste,” said AA chief executive Bobby Ramagwede.
Taxes make up about 25% of the pump price, the AA said. In October’s price structure, fuel taxes and the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy come to R6.58 of the R30.25 Gauteng price of 95, or 21.8%, and 24.6% with the 87.66c slate levy. Treasury estimated that its fuel levy relief from April to June cost R17.2 billion.
The AA also objected to what it said was a request, in the RAF’s 2025/26 annual report, to raise the levy from R2.25 a litre to R3. Follow the adjustment and other household costs on our personal finance page.
The DMPR will announce the official November adjustment before it takes effect on Wednesday 4 November.
